May is typically the wettest month of the year for North Texas, but this year the rainfall did not pan out as expected. At DFW Airport, total rainfall for May was 2.96”, which is 1.82″ below the normal 4.78″. Despite the below normal rainfall, localized storms still generated inflows to TRWD lakes, helping keep the system storage stable at approximately 89% through the month.
June is typically a transition month, with early-summer heat beginning to take hold while occasional storm systems may still bring rainfall. Current outlooks suggest near to slightly above normal precipitation, particularly during the first half of the month. If rains materialize over key watersheds, they could help maintain or modestly increase reservoir levels, though rising temperatures and evaporation may offset some of these gains as the month progresses.
What to Expect: Expect lake levels to follow either the “Normal Rainfall” or “Below Normal” trends (green and yellow areas on the Lake Level Blog Projection Plots). Actual lake levels this month will be mostly influenced by temperatures and evaporation. Rainfall gains will be dependent on the quantity, location, and intensity of this month’s rainfall.
May Highlights:
- Temperature: May was slightly above normal, with average temperatures only 0.8°F higher than normal for DFW (74° F).
- Rainfall: All TRWD watersheds recorded below normal precipitation in May, as seen in the rainfall map below.
- Drought Conditions:
- Even though May precipitation was below normal, drought conditions remained relatively stable compared to April.
- Portions of the southern TRWD service area remain Abnormally Dry (D0) to Moderate Drought (D1).
- Severe Drought (D2) conditions still persist near TRWD’s East Texas lakes, including Richland‑Chambers and Cedar Creek.
- View the latest conditions on the NWS Drought Monitor.
Looking Ahead:
- La Niña Influence: *ENSO-neutral conditions are still present.
- Rainfall: The first half of June looks active and may bring some reservoir inflows, while longer‑range outlooks indicate normal conditions through the summer.
- Temperatures: Above-normal temperatures are expected through the summer.
- Looking Further: *ENSO-neutral conditions are favored through the summer. The Climate Prediction Center is currently forecasting a moderate to strong El Nino by the end of the year, with a 55% chance of occurring.
*Note: ENSO, or the El Niño-Southern Oscillation, is a recurring climate pattern that influences global weather. It has two main phases: El Niño, which often brings wetter conditions, and La Niña, which typically leads to drier and warmer weather in Texas, especially during fall and winter. This shift is important for water resource planning, as it can affect rainfall and reservoir levels.
Stay Informed by Checking Out the Following:
- TRWD’s quarterly watershed protection newsletter, The Tributary.
- The latest Lake Level Projections (see below).
- Links to historical lake level plots.
- Past projections compared to actual outcomes.
Thank you for following the Lake Level Blog. Check back next month for more updates!
TRWD Watershed Rainfall
TRWD Lake Rainfall Totals through May 31, 2026
Lake Level Projections
Last Month’s Projection | Historical Lake Levels
Last Month’s Projections | Historical Lake Levels
Last Month’s Projection | Historical Lake Levels
Last Month’s Projection | Historical Lake Levels
Disclaimer: These projections are based on typical operating conditions and expected weather patterns. Actual water use and weather can vary, so observed lake levels may occasionally be slightly higher or lower than the projected range.
Acknowledgments:
- Weather and Climate Insights: Special thanks to Vini de Oliveira and Craig Ottman.
- Reservoir Projections: A big thank you to Vini de Oliveira for his timely reservoir projections.
- Rainfall Analysis: Appreciation goes to Ashley Lowrie for her thorough analysis of observed rainfall.
