October was mostly warm and dry across the TRWD system, with only a few wet days late in the month. Although lake levels have gradually declined, total storage remains healthy at 90%, thanks to a wet spring and a mild August. The last time we saw 90% storage on November 1 was in 2021. Looking ahead, lake levels will likely decline this fall as dry conditions persist. The good news: the cooler months bring lower water demand and reduced evaporation, slowing the rate of decline. Plus, dormant vegetation means less soil absorption, so any rain we receive is more likely to turn into runoff.
Highlights:
- Temperature: October was warm, averaging 5.7°F above normal, with 25 out of 31 days exceeding normal temperatures.
- Rainfall: TRWD reservoirs received 2 to 3 inches of rain during October, which is below the monthly average. (See the 30-Day Percent of Normal Rainfall map below.)
- Drought Conditions: Drought severity increased through most of October, but late-month rainfall eased drought severity slightly, bringing conditions closer to early-October levels. The latest NWS Drought Monitor reflects this improvement, though dry conditions remain a concern.
Looking Ahead:
- La Niña Influence: A weak La Niña will persist through winter. This typically brings warmer and drier conditions to Texas.
- Rainfall: Below-normal rainfall expected through February; near-normal rain possible in spring.
- Temperatures: Warmer than normal this fall; mild winter ahead with occasional cold snaps.
- Looking Further: El Niño development possible next year, which could bring wetter conditions.
Note: ENSO, or the El Niño-Southern Oscillation, is a recurring climate pattern that influences global weather. It has two main phases: El Niño, which often brings wetter conditions, and La Niña, which typically leads to drier and warmer weather in Texas, especially during fall and winter. This shift is important for water resource planning, as it can affect rainfall and reservoir levels.
Stay Informed by Checking Out the Following:
- The latest lake level projections (see below).
- Links to historical lake level plots.
- Past projections compared to actual outcomes.
Thank you for following the Lake Level Blog. Check back next month for more updates!
TRWD Watershed Rainfall
30-Day Percent of Normal Rainfall
TRWD Lake Rainfall Totals through October 31, 2025
Lake Level Projections
Last Month’s Projection | Historical Lake Levels
Last Month’s Projection | Historical Lake Levels
Last Month’s Projection | Historical Lake Levels
Last Month’s Projection | Historical Lake Levels
Acknowledgments:
- Weather and Climate Insights: Special thanks to Craig Ottman.
- Reservoir Projections: A big thank you to Vini de Oliveira for his timely reservoir projections.
- Rainfall Analysis: Appreciation goes to Ashley Lowrie for her thorough analysis of observed rainfall.
- Editorial Review: Special thanks to Victoria Cason for her thorough editorial review.
