February 2026 continued the warm and dry pattern that began earlier this winter with a record-breaking average high temperature of 72.2 degrees (average high normal is 60.9° F). Precipitation totaled only 1.31 inches at DFW airport, ending the month below the normal (2.76 inches). Even though it was dry, TRWD’s system storage is currently holding steady at around 88% thanks to localized rainfall in the right areas.
March is forecasted to be warmer with chances of being wetter than normal, meaning rainfall can boost storage if it falls in the right place.
Bottom Line: Expect lake levels to follow the “Normal Rainfall” trend (green area on the Lake Level Blog Projection Plots) or even going into the “Above Normal” trend (blue area on the Lake Level Blog Projection Plots) if the forecast rainfall materializes.
February Highlights:
- Temperature: February unusually was warm, with temperatures reaching the mid-80s, about 35 degrees higher than normal. The month ended 12 degrees higher than the normal temperature for DFW (50.5° F) and the second warmest on record, only 1.5 degrees cooler than February 2017.
- Rainfall: All TRWD watersheds recorded below normal precipitation in February, as seen in the rainfall map below.
- Drought Conditions: With the lack of rain across the region, most of the TRWD service area remains in the D0 (Abnormally Dry) and D1 (Moderate Drought) categories, as shown in the latest NWS Drought Monitor.
Looking Ahead:
- La Niña Influence: A La Niña condition is still persistent. This typically brings warmer and drier conditions to Texas.
- Rainfall: The first half of March is expected to be active, which has the potential to generate runoff into the TRWD reservoirs. Looking ahead, equal chances for normal rainfall are expected through the spring.
- Temperatures: Above-normal temperatures are expected through the spring.
- Looking Further: A 75% chance of transitioning from La Niña to ENSO-neutral is expected this spring. El Niño development is possible later in the year, which could bring wetter conditions.
Note: ENSO, or the El Niño-Southern Oscillation, is a recurring climate pattern that influences global weather. It has two main phases: El Niño, which often brings wetter conditions, and La Niña, which typically leads to drier and warmer weather in Texas, especially during fall and winter. This shift is important for water resource planning, as it can affect rainfall and reservoir levels.
Stay Informed by Checking Out the Following:
- TRWD’s quarterly watershed protection newsletter, The Tributary
- The latest Lake Level Projections (see below).
- Links to historical lake level plots.
- Past projections compared to actual outcomes.
Thank you for following the Lake Level Blog. Check back next month for more updates!
TRWD Watershed Rainfall
TRWD Lake Rainfall Totals through January 31, 2026
Lake Level Projections
Last Month’s Projection | Historical Lake Levels
Last Month’s Projections | Historical Lake Levels
Last Month’s Projection | Historical Lake Levels
Last Month’s Projection | Historical Lake Levels
Acknowledgments:
- Weather and Climate Insights: Special thanks to Vini de Oliveira and Craig Ottman.
- Reservoir Projections: A big thank you to Vini de Oliveira for his timely reservoir projections.
- Rainfall Analysis: Appreciation goes to Ashley Lowrie for her thorough analysis of observed rainfall.
- Editorial Review: Special thanks to Victoria Cason for her thorough editorial review.
