Lake Level BlogLake Level Projections

Lake Level Projections – July 2024

By June 25, 2024

The latest lake level projections are shown below.  You will also find:

  • Links to historical lake level plots
  • Last month’s projections compared to what actually happened

Summer has arrived and a wet spring is behind us. The spring rains helped replenish the TRWD system. Total system storage is currently 96%. The West Fork system (Bridgeport and Eagle Mountain) has increased from 65% to 81%, while the East Texas system (Richland-Chambers and Cedar Creek) has been full or close to full since mid-April. Currently, only Richland-Chambers is making a controlled release to pass floodwaters stored in the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers lakes (Bardwell and Navarro-Mills). Overall, the spring rains put the TRWD lakes in a favorable position as we enter what is expected to be a hot and dry summer. TRWD’s Meteorologist, Courtney Jalbert, provides information on what we can expect in terms of rainfall and temperatures going into the summer and their impacts to lake levels in the “From our Meteorologist” section.

Thank you for following the Lake Level Blog and check back next month for more projections.


From our Meteorologist

June Summary…

Meteorological summer has begun, and temperatures have slowly heated up throughout the month of June with temperatures slightly above the normal. Generous rainfall at the beginning of the month means drought conditions remain non-existent in North Texas. As of June 21st, DFW has recorded 3.67” of rainfall (1.13” above normal).  Rain totals for the past 30 days are shown below.  Notably, the Cedar Creek watershed received over 10 inches of rain.  All TRWD reservoirs are showing above normal cumulative rainfall, as indicated by the lake rainfall graphs below.

30-Day Rainfall Totals

TRWD Lake Rainfall Totals though June 25, 2024

Looking ahead…

Summer is coming in strong, and models are indicating that temperatures will be above normal in the 6-10 day and 8–14-day outlooks as high pressure builds aloft.  Rainfall will have a higher likelihood in areas west and south of the North Texas region as indicated in the Climate Prediction Center 6-10 Day and 8-14 Day precipitation outlooks with the high pressure blocking rainfall from making it into the region.

In the extended July-August-September Precipitation Outlook, North Texas sits between an expected above normal probability of precipitation to the east and below normal probability of precipitation to the west.  The enhanced probability of higher than normal precipitation along the Gulf Coast and parts of East Texas is attributed to a forecasted above normal hurricane season.  Unfortunately, a hot summer is expected to continue in the climate models for the July-August-September Temperature Outlook.

ENSO-neutral conditions are present in the Pacific and a La Nina watch has been issued with models favoring development this fall. If development comes to fruition a La Nina winter generally brings a drier and warmer weather pattern over North Texas.

Projections

Lake Bridgeport

Last Month’s Projection

Historical Lake Levels

Eagle Mountain Lake

Last Month’s Projection

Historical Lake Levels

Cedar Creek Lake

Last Month’s Projection

Historical Lake Levels

Richland-Chambers Lake

Last Month’s Projection

Historical Lake Levels

Lake Current Level Conservation Level* Level Difference**
Arlington 549.37 550.00 -0.63
Benbrook 692.73 694.00 -1.27
Bridgeport 825.91 836.00 -10.09
Cedar Creek 321.78 322.00 -0.22
Eagle Mountain 646.98 649.10 -2.12
Lake Worth 591.84 594.00 -2.16
Richland-Chambers 315.32 315.00 0.32
*Conservation Level: The permitted level of water an entity is allowed to hold in a lake. Any amount above the conservation level is used for the temporary storage of flood waters and must be released downstream.
**Difference: Amount above or below conservation level.
For more information read our daily reports or the TRWD Lake Level Blog.

Check out the TRWD OneRain portal for a visualization of this information and more.

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