December was very dry, with only 0.08 inches of rain recorded at the DFW Airport. Average temperatures were about 5.1°F warmer than normal. Despite December being one of the warmest and driest on record, system storage is currently at 88%, which is a healthy level for this time of year and only a 2% decrease over the past 30 days.
The January outlook calls for warmer-than-normal temperatures and no strong signal for wet conditions, meaning rainfall is unlikely to significantly boost storage. Bottom Line: Expect lake levels to follow the “Below Normal Rainfall” trend, similar to last month.
2025 Weather Highlights:
- Temperature: Even though the summer was mild, the DFW region recorded 8 months with above-normal temperatures.
- Rainfall:
- West Fork lakes (Bridgeport and Eagle Mountain) ended 2025 with below-normal rainfall
- East Texas lakes (Cedar Creek and Richland Chambers) finished 2025 with above-normal rainfall totals. (See the 2025 Total Rainfall below.)
December Highlights:
- Temperature: December 2025 was a record-breaking month, with a 6-day streak with temperatures above 80°F, with a few days averaging +25°F above the mean normal temperature (48.1°F). December 2025 ranked as the 6th warmer on record at DFW.
- Rainfall: December was very dry and only minimal rainfall was recorded in the last 30 days. (See the 30-Day Percent of Normal Rainfall map below). December 2025 ranked as the 6th driest on record at DFW.
- Drought Conditions: Even though December was dry, most of the TRWD service area remains free of drought, except for the northwest part of the TRWD system, which is currently in the D0 Abnormally Dry category, as shown in the latest NWS Drought Monitor .
Looking Ahead:
- La Niña Influence: A La Niña is present and will persist through winter. This typically brings warmer and drier conditions to Texas.
- Rainfall: Equal chances for normal rainfall are expected through March.
- Temperatures: Above-normal temperatures are expected going forward.
- Looking Further: A transition from La Niña to ENSO-neutral is expected sometime in the spring. El Niño development is possible later in the year, which could bring wetter conditions.
Note: ENSO, or the El Niño-Southern Oscillation, is a recurring climate pattern that influences global weather. It has two main phases: El Niño, which often brings wetter conditions, and La Niña, which typically leads to drier and warmer weather in Texas, especially during fall and winter. This shift is important for water resource planning, as it can affect rainfall and reservoir levels.
Stay Informed by Checking Out the Following:
- TRWD’s quarterly watershed protection newsletter, The Tributary
- The latest lake level projections (see below).
- Links to historical lake level plots.
- Past projections compared to actual outcomes.
Thank you for following the Lake Level Blog. Check back next month for more updates!
TRWD Watershed Rainfall
TRWD Lake Rainfall Totals through December 31, 2025
Lake Level Projections
Last Month’s Projection | Historical Lake Levels
Last Month’s Projections | Historical Lake Levels
Last Month’s Projection | Historical Lake Levels
Last Month’s Projection | Historical Lake Levels
Acknowledgments:
- Weather and Climate Insights: Special thanks to Vini de Oliveira and Craig Ottman.
- Reservoir Projections: A big thank you to Vini de Oliveira for his timely reservoir projections.
- Rainfall Analysis: Appreciation goes to Ashley Lowrie for her thorough analysis of observed rainfall.
- Editorial Review: Special thanks to Victoria Cason for her thorough editorial review.
